Tag Archives: orange county real estate

OC median home price tops $700k–a new record!

Home for sale in Dana Point. Click photo for details.

According to this article from the OC Register, property values throughout Orange County have risen to a record high for the third month in a row.

Highlights from the article:

  • The median price of a home hit $710,000 last month, up 10.9%
  • That’s up $25,000 from August’s median of $685,000, the sixth-biggest one-month price gain in records dating back to 1988
  • Home prices also rose in September throughout Southern California, pushing the regionwide median to its bubble-era high of $505,000 for the first time in a decade

Last month’s median almost elevates Orange County home values to Bay Area levels, where the nine-county median was $742,000 in August.

Will values keep going up? Only time will tell.

Are people fleeing southern California?

 

Home for sale in Dana Point. Click photo for details.

Source: OC Register

During the first 10 months of 2016, 5,706 residents of Orange, Los Angeles, Riverside and San Bernardino counties took out loans to buy a primary residence out of state, a CoreLogic analysis of mortgage applications shows.

Lower home prices and taxes, less congestion, family ties, or a more conservative environment are luring Southern Californians to leave the state, some transplants say. But housing costs clearly are the chief factor. Southern California’s housing market is one of the most expensive in the nation, with the median house price averaging $473,000 in 2016, double the U.S. average. And the costs are even higher in Orange and Los Angeles counties, which accounted for most of the region’s out-migration. The CoreLogic study showed one out of every four Los Angeles-Orange County homebuyers moved out of their county.

About 8.3 percent moved to the Inland Empire, while 8.2 percent left the state altogether. CoreLogic’s study is just the latest in a series of reports showing California among the nation’s leaders in out-migration, trailing only New York and Illinois in net out-migration numbers. About 266,000 more people left California than moved in from other states from 2010 to 2015, U.S. Census data show. Orange County lost nearly 11,000 residents to other California counties or other states. Los Angeles County lost almost 270,000 but Riverside County offset that loss with a net gain of 66,000 people.

To be fair, that doesn’t include people moving to California and the region from overseas, which more than offsets the loss to other states in California and Orange County. It also doesn’t take into account California’s largest-in-nation population. When taking population into account, net migration to other states accounted for 0.2 percent of all residents in 2015, 24th highest in the nation.

Orange County real estate in 2016

With another year to add to the history books, it’s time to look ahead at what to expect in 2016 for our local real estate markets. In their 2016 California Economic and Market Forecast Report, the California Association of Realtors projects modest but continued improvements to our local housing markets.  Here are a few highlights:

  • Forecast sees an increase in existing home sales of 6.3 percent next year
  • Projects increase in U.S. GDP of 2.7 percent in 2016, after a projected gain of 2.4 percent in 2015
  • The State’s unemployment rate should decrease to 5.5 percent in 2016 from 6.3 percent in 2015 and 7.5 percent in 2014
  • 30-year, fixed mortgage interest rate averages will rise only slightly to 4.5 percent but will still remain at historically low levels
  • Median home prices in CA are schedules to increase 3.2 percent to $491,300 in 2016

chart 1 chart 2

2016 will also be unique in that there are some pretty significant wildcards to expect that could change the local real estate market trajectory. For example, the 2016 Presidential election and other things like El Niño and/or the water shortage could impact things significantly.  However, the general consensus from the California Association of Realtors is that we should expect a mild slowdown, but still solid market growth in 2016.

market update

 

For a more in-depth look at the Orange County real estate market’s performance over the past year, take a look at the attached report.